Protect Yourself from Industry Hype – Search Is What People Use When They Intend To Buy

This is the hype machine and the the hype machine is deafening.

Chugga, Chugga, Chugga the hype machine goes. That’s the sound of spinning yarns into memes and trends. Social media is the new this. Content is the new that. And so on.

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Which is why I find this cold glass of water (or is it sand in the gear box?) from serial entrepreneur Kaila Colbin refreshing.

In the provocatively titled “Can We Please Stop Hyping Social As The Marketing Messiah?” Nathan Safran replaces assumptions with data. During the 2012 holiday season, for example, 34% of retail website visits came from search. 40% were direct. 2% — yes, a mere two percent — were from social.

Another study Safran cites has 15% of respondents always or often turning to social for shopping or product research, while 97% say they always or often turn to search. Search is obviously not the only possible marketing channel out there, but at least if your dogma is that “search is best,” you’ve got some stats supporting you.

I’m not a search marketer. And this post isn’t about search, it’s about our ability to reason and read between the lines. For instance, digital spending reports continue to baffle me. Up and up the spending goes; yet, so-called display ads are the worst of the worst ROI generators.

Can we trust our most trusted media sources today? Hell, can we trust our own media literacy?

Companies are about to spend $17 billion dollars on display ads this year, but only one tenth of one percent of the people who see these display ads will notice, or act. The information fails to justify. Either companies are throwing money down the hype-made drain for no good reason, or display ads work much better than reported.

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Hey Ad Man, What Business Are You In? #Rhetorical

I don’t know if ad grunts are any more likely to complain about work than any other profession, but I do know we find plenty to complain about: unreasonable timelines and budgets, long hours, okay pay, testy clients and account directors, unnecessary attitudes from the creative department, mindless focus on the minutia, and so on.

But all that is the glass half-empty view of the agency business. For the glass half-full version we turn to former CEO of Leo Burnett Singapore, John Kyriakou.

Writing for Campaign Asia-Pacific says, Kyriakou extolls our virtues, while challenging us to reach higher.

I still hear people say ‘we’re in the ad business’. At some point we need to realise that the success of our business is entirely based on the success of our clients’ business. Entirely.

If we at least begin to accept that, then we should be developing ideas, not just ads, that help strengthen the spreadsheets of our clients. We need to become, you guessed it, thinkers and innovators.

Businesses need to be more creative now than ever, not more conservative. They need new ways to stimulate people, whether it be through product development, packaging innovation, new distribution channels. People do not need more of the same, they need difference in their lives. Agencies have everything at their disposal to supply it.

It’s funny, I was in the “ad making” business for awhile, and it was a me-centered universe. What mattered was selling the best creative, regardless of what the client thought of it, or if it actually might work in the marketplace. Because those things didn’t matter. What mattered was a better book for me, so I could get a better job and more pay. If my clients and their customers were also happy, all the better.

Thankfully, I managed to grow up and get past this limited POV, but I am well aware that the conditions which created it remain in place. We are human beings and we like to follow formulas. Even the best agencies follow formulas. Take W+K. It might be a stretch to say their work is suffering, but I will say it is increasingly formulaic. And there’s a reason for it, which has everything to do with following formulas.

The formula W+K and other elite agencies use looks like this: Hire only the people we know, or know of, people with strikingly similar books and backgrounds, and keep them busy doing what the agency is best at — delivering TV campaigns.

Why do you think digital is such a challenge for W+K and other leading traditional shops? Digital is outside the formula. So, right now a new digitally-enhanced formula is being made, which will theoretically create new digital hits. Yet, for digital to jump the direct marketing shark and emerge as a brand building platform, we need radical disruption, not another formula.

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Wealth Accumulates In Pockets

Here is an ad for Harvard University, not that Harvard needs ads.

One reason, among many, that Harvard does not needs ads is numbers. The institution has all the numbers on its side. For example, The Atlantic looked at data that shows that 3,000 graduates of Harvard University are worth more than $30 million, and that most of them earned rather than inherited their money.

It’s a stat that sticks out — 3,000 graduates of Harvard University are worth more than $30 million. It’s also proof of how things work in the real world. People who are connected to wealth and privilege have a huge head start on the rest of the field, and frontrunners like to keep their seemingly insurmountable leads.

Is it all that different in advertising, or any other field of endeavor? By doing great work and winning grocery baskets full of awards every year, an agency is able to recruit better talent which propels it forward and ensures its elite status.

Speaking of elite status, the following video has been reappearing in my Facebook feed over the weekend:

The facts of income inequality in America are hard to stomach — 80% of Americans own just seven percent of the nation’s wealth, while the top 20% holds the remainder. The rich, do in fact, get richer.

Which has what to do with our roles as media and/or marketing professionals? We help the rich get richer, mostly for pennies on the dollar. But we also have the opportunity to do more than create wealth for our clients, we can create meaning for their customers. As consultants to big business, we are positioned to help steer not just communications but operations. Some may bristle at this kind of reach, but its not overstepping, it’s looking out for everyone’s best interets.

Another key takeaway for marketers is the fact that eight in ten Americans are far from financially well off. The struggle to earn has to be factored when asking our fellow Americans to buy a car, a new computer, or a bottle of vodka. And when we recognize the struggle for what it is, we know that things like planned obsolescence are morally wrong, and therefore unjustifiable.

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Not A Good Time To Be On A Car Account

The Bush administration’s economic stimulus package is far from enough to drive Americans into their local car and truck dealer.

June’s sales numbers, compared to June 2007 are horrible and a sign of a seriously weakened economy.

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According to The Wall Street Journal, American consumers long enamored with trucks and SUVs are now looking for fuel-efficient cars. Sales of Ford’s SUVs fell 55%, and its formerly top-selling truck line dropped 38%. Toyota sold about two-thirds fewer light trucks than it did a year earlier.

To help offset these declines, GM introduced zero-percent financing for 72 months on many 2008 models. Without this incentive, Toyota would have likely overcome GM in the market share department.

A Purchase Is A Purchase

According to BusinessWeek, the type of purchases one makes with a credit card can determine one’s credit score.

The FTC suit against Atlanta-based CompuCredit for allegedly “deceptive” marketing practices offers a rare look inside the opaque business of credit scoring. It reveals a mechanism that consumer advocates and politicians have long suspected exists—one in which purchasing behavior, not just payment history, matters.

The allegations, in part, focus on CompuCredit’s Aspire Visa, a subprime credit card for risky borrowers. The FTC claims that CompuCredit didn’t properly disclose that it monitored spending and cut credit lines if consumers used their cards at certain places. Among them: tire and retreading shops, massage parlors, bars, billiard halls, and marriage counseling offices. “The company touted that cardholders could use their credit cards anywhere,” says J. Reilly Dolan, assistant director for financial practices at the FTC. “What they didn’t say was that you could be punished for specific kinds of purchases.”

No Money? Travel Anyway.

Don’t let the economy quash your vacation plans. That’s the message coming from several destinations, as consumers face inflationary prices at every turn.

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Stuart Elliott of The New York Times points to Las Vegas, Panama City Beach, Orlando and other cities that are stepping off their brand messaging platforms in favor of price promotions.

“ ‘What happens here stays here’ is being given a rest,” said Rob Dondero, executive vice president at R&R Partners in Las Vegas, the agency for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, because “it doesn’t have a strong call to action.”

“We need to be a little more retail,” he added. “People want to know what is the best value for their getaway dollar.”

Destinations are not the only travel marketers seeking to woo worried consumers. Hertz is offering bargains like 50 percent off weekend rates. The Extended Stay Hotels chain is proclaiming, “Take shelter from the economy,” in suites with kitchens from $59.99 a night.

Say, Can I Have Some Purple Berries? Yes, I’ve Been Eating Them For Six Or Seven Weeks Now. Probably Keep Us Both Alive.

Earlier this week Kraft – which makes its namesake cheese singles, Philadelphia cream cheese and Oscar Mayer meats – posted a 13% drop in first- quarter net income amid surging costs for dairy, wheat and other commodities.

According to Dow Jones, food manufacturers like Kraft Foods are blaming ethanol producers for cost increases.

Kraft’s Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld has been in Washington in recent weeks to talk to key decision makers on the diversion of corn for biofuels. “This was a policy that was well intentioned but has had some unintended consequences that have exacerbated commodity increases in certain parts of the world causing people to go hungry,” she said.

People are going hungry? Or companies aren’t making their numbers and “people” aren’t getting their bonuses? Either way, it’s bad news.

It’s Hard To Drive Purchase When People Aren’t Driving

When I filled up my Pathfinder yesterday, I realized that $3.54/gallon means a $70 tank–double what it cost me a short time ago. Naturally, this type of inflation has dire consequences for the economy.

For the first time since 1980, consumers are driving less. Last year, the amount of miles driven declined 0.4%. The previous two years had been flat. Prior to that, the amount of miles had grown 3-5% each year.

Brandweek explores some of the behavioral changes taking place as Americans keep it in “park.”

91% of consumers claim they have changed their shopping behavior due to various rising prices in the U.S. economy.

One of the categories getting hit the hardest is restaurants. Last year, customer traffic was up only 0.7%. More than half of financially challenged consumers surveyed said they are stocking up, preparing more meals at home and using leftovers.

The article also says Coca-Cola and PepsiCo will feel the pinch as transportation and raw materials costs rise. “It’s squeezing everybody’s margins,” said Gary Hemphill, managing director at Beverage Marketing, New York. “Beverages are price sensitive, there is only so much you can pass onto the consumer.”

Brandweek believes strong branding is more important than ever, as it’s that much harder to motivate purchase. I believe they are correct, but if gas prices continue to rise at this rate, it’s not going to matter much. People simply won’t have the disposable income it takes to make non-essential purchases.

[UPDATE] Now that I’ve had the chance to read the front page of Sunday’s New York Times, I see this topic is on the media’s mind. The Times says middle- and working-class consumers are starting to switch from name brands to cheaper alternatives.

In Ohio, Holly Levitsky is replacing the Lucky Charms cereal in her kitchen with Millville Marshmallows and Stars, a less expensive store brand. In New Hampshire, George Goulet is no longer booking hotel rooms at the Hilton, favoring the lower-cost Hampton Inn. And in Michigan, Jennifer Olden is buying Gain laundry detergent instead of the full-price Tide.

Most Profitable Companies In The Fortune 500

Well run oil, financial services, technology, retail, health care, communications and consumer packaged goods companies are making money.

Here’s Fortune’s list of most profitable companies:

  • Exxon/Mobil
  • GE
  • Chevron
  • J.P. Morgan Chase
  • Bank of America
  • Microsoft
  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • Wal-Mart
  • AT&T
  • ConocoPhillips
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Johnson & Johnson
  • IBM
  • Procter & Gamble
  • Altria Group
  • Pfizer
  • Wells Fargo
  • Cisco Sytems
  • Hewlett-Packard
  • Intel

If you work on any of these businesses (or another just like them), I hope you too are making a profit.

There’s One For You, Nineteen For Me

It’s taxes due day in America and the perfect time to look at consumer spending and the retail segment of our economy.

From today’s New York Times:

The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are unleashing a widening wave of bankruptcies in American retailing, prompting thousands of store closings that are expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country.

Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.

Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117, and the jeweler Zales will close 100.

Speaking to the consumer spending question in today’s Washington Post, marketing consultant and friend of AdPulp, Marc Babej, said, “The common denominator in what people will look for is how to get the most bang for their buck. That means trying to get better value and more pleasure out of each dollar you spend.”

Better value and more pleasure. I like that. That ought to be S.O.P., no matter what the economy is doing.

Let’s Run This Place on Fry Grease

Gas prices are out of hand and there’s no ceiling in sight. We’ll be looking at $4.00/gallon and up before GWB and his oil men buddies depart Washington next January.

The Washington Post has more…

“On April Fool’s Day, the biggest joke of all is being played on American families by Big Oil,” said Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., as his committee began hearing from the oil company executives.

“These companies are defending billions of federal subsidies … while reaping over a hundred billion dollars in profits in just the last year alone,” complained Markey, chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.

Regulation? Taxes? NO WAY!

“Our earnings, though high in absolute terms, need to be viewed in the context of the scale and cyclical, long-term nature of our industry as well as the huge investment requirements,” said J.S. Simon, Exxon Mobil’s senior vice president. Last year the oil and gas industry earned 8.3 cents per dollar of sales, only a little higher than the Dow Jones Industrial Average for major industries, he argued in prepared testimony.

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21/7

Today’s New York Times looks at what the MicroHoo! deal could mean for “the minnows,” a.k.a. valley startups hoping to be acquired.

No one (named in the article) really knows what it means, and people seem to be more concerned about the looming recession. However, the optimists have reason to believe “the recession” won’t hurt them.

True believers are likely to ward off recessionary fear with two numbers: 21 and 7. Twenty-one percent of the average American’s media-consumption time is spent online, analysts say, yet only 7 percent of all advertising is online. The hope is that advertising will inevitably shift online and close this gap, whatever the economic outlook.

Microsoft to Buy Yahoo. Google to Scratch Chin.

Microhoo!

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According to Market Watch, Microsoft Corp. offered to buy search-engine operator Yahoo Inc. for $31 a share, or $44.6 billion, in an effort to better compete with online-advertising juggernaut Google Inc.

Microsoft executives acknowledged that Google is the 800-pound gorilla of the search market and said a partnership with Yahoo would create a stronger rival.

“We’re very, very confident that this is the right path for Microsoft and Yahoo,” Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said in a conference call Friday morning.

In an appeal to Yahoo employees, who are nervous about pending layoffs, Microsoft said it would offer significant retention packages to Yahoo engineers, key leaders and employees across all disciplines.

Recession Proof Your Business with Sex, Guns & Booze

The Spending Pendulum

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The dark clouds of recession are upon us. People want answers to their quesions. “What’s the Fed going to do about this? Can I sell my house in this market? Will my business fail?”

Business too seeks answers. The Wall Street Journal looks closely at the key retail sector after weak holiday spending.

Chains are slamming the brakes on store openings, cutting back on inventory and girding for leaner times as consumer spending chills. The speed with which sales slowed during the holidays caught even cautious retailers off-guard, prompting a flurry of profit warnings.

And while data on December consumer spending won’t be released until the end of the month, plummeting sales suggest consumers are snapping shut their pocketbooks.

“Financial stress from high energy costs, the fallout from the housing slump and sluggish employment and income growth” will weigh on shoppers, projects Rosalind Wells, chief economist of the National Retail Federation.

So, it’s gloom and doom for the average American shopper and those companies who serve this vast market. A fact which makes this New York Times “Sunday Styles” piece on conspicuous consumption all the more far out.

EXHIBITION and theater are far more important at Harry Cipriani than the taste of the food. Diners go to see who’s there. And they go to prove they can afford to be there. As Frank Bruni wrote in The Times in November, in a review that gave the restaurant a rating of poor, “prices are the point of Harry Cipriani, which exists to affirm its patrons’ ability to throw away money.”

Time for Year-End Lists

‘Tis the season for year-end lists of every variety. Time Magazine has 50 such lists, one of which–Top 10 websites–I’d like to take a closer look at.

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1. Lemonade.com
2. AskSunday.com
3. Wink.com
4. TechPresident.com
5. GoodReads.com
6. MenuPages.com
7. DontForgetYourToothbrush.com
8. VolunteerMatch.com
9. Fatsecret.com
10. Indeed.com

It’s pretty easy to see the common thread here–services made possible, or made better, by the interwebs.

As someone who builds websites for brands, I find this list instructive. Mostly, brands want to use the web as a place to run ads, deeper, more immersive ads, but ads just the same. Yet, that’s not what people want from the web. They want useful information, entertainment, connections with other like-minded peope and services that make their day-to-day lives easier and more efficient.