The bulk of the NFL’s current rights portfolio officially won’t be up for grabs until after the end of the 2022 season, but if history is any guide, the league may begin the requisite blocking and tackling with all interested parties as early as next year. And while analysts suggest that at least one legacy broadcaster’s renewal prospects will be buried under a heap of ones and zeroes, Wall Street’s feverish haste to toss dirt onto the lid of linear television’s vacant casket is a bit short-sighted.
In a recent report issued to investors, Barclays media analyst Kannan Venkateshwar speculates that the NFL’s desire to adapt its next slate of rights deals could leave CBS out in the cold. “CBS has a relatively limited balance sheet to bid up rights significantly,” Venkateshwar writes, adding that the company’s commitment to buying back as much as $1 billion in stock on an annual basis and its investment in its CBS All Access over-the-top service could leave it ill-suited to dig in should the digital disruptors drive the price up well beyond the $1 billion per year it currently pays for its Sunday afternoon package.
The Barclays analysis, however, does not take into consideration how quickly CBS would level up should it merge with Viacom. Now that reunification antagonist Les Moonves has been removed from power, it appears increasingly likely that the new-look CBS board (one that is now loaded with mergers-and-acquisitions specialists) will back Shari Redstone’s long-deferred desire to combine the two properties. That sort of scaling up would serve to neutralize any concerns about CBS’s ability to compete in the NFL auction.
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