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E-commerce once may have been a minor factor for packaged-goods, but it’s fast becoming a significant market that could shift market share to smaller players and disrupt pricing and other key parts of the industry’s business model, according to a new report by Sanford C. Bernstein.

The Sept. 25 report estimates e-commerce sales have risen to 9% of category sales for health products, 5.9% for beauty care and 5.7% for pet care. Those numbers are all up substantially and, in the case of pet products, more than double levels of five years ago, according to estimates developed using Bernstein consumer surveys and proprietary programming tools.

For much of the category, e-commerce still accounts for 1% or less of sales. But Bernstein predicts online sales will reach $222 billion — or around 25% of U.S. consumer-packaged goods spending overall — within five to 10 years, said analyst Ali Dibadj.

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